Pump prices continue to tick down, thanks in part to lower crude oil prices which have posted seven consecutive weeks of losses. Still, drivers can expect some volatility in gas prices due to the switch to summer-blend fuel and markets reacting to the on-again, off-again news on tariffs. For the week, the national average for regular slips two cents to $3.08 a gallon. The Oregon average also loses two cents to $3.73 a gallon.

“It’s unusual for gas prices to fall in March, as this is the time of year for refinery maintenance and the switch to summer-blend fuel, which is more expensive to produce. But the lower crude oil prices have helped to mute those factors. In addition, OPEC+ decided to increase oil production after almost two years of reduced output, and that’s putting more downward pressure on oil prices. It all adds up to a smaller seasonal rise in gas prices for now,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

The Oregon average began 2025 at $3.45 a gallon and is currently at $3.73. The lowest price of the year so far is just under $3.45 a gallon on January 2, and the highest price of the year so far is $3.77 on February 22.

The national average began 2025 at $3.06 a gallon and is currently at $3.08. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.06 on January 5, and the highest is $3.165 on February 14.

Last week, President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be delayed until April. The executive order signed by the President on February 1, calls for 25% tariffs on goods coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on goods from China. The only products subject to a lower tariff are Canadian energy products, which have a lower rate of 10%. Nearly 70% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada and Mexico, with the bulk coming from Canada. The tariffs and concerns about the U.S. economy have sent markets lower, and crude oil prices have followed suit.

Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.

Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.

Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in this country ticked up from 13.502 to 13.508 million barrels per day for the week ending February 28. The record high is 13.63 million barrels per day for the week of December 6. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.

The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) has been in the upper $60s to mid-$70s for much of the last three months, but did soar to $80.04 per barrel on January 15, which is the highest price since last August. Last Wednesday, WTI fell to $66.31, its lowest closing price since September. Then WTI closed even lower yesterday (March 10) at $66.03.

Crude oil is trading around $67 today compared to $68 a week ago and $78 a year ago. In 2024, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.

The announcement by OPEC+ that it would end its production cuts on April 1 and would return to full production by next year has put additional downward pressure on crude oil prices. This would end about 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts which have been in effect since 2023. OPEC+ had hoped that its production cuts would boost crude oil prices, but that didn’t happen, in part due to sluggish demand in China and a boost in production by non-members of OPEC+.

Crude prices are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the unrest in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ tightened global crude oil supplies, which continued to impact prices.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 58% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 9% is refining, 16% distribution and marketing, and 17% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand for gasoline in the U.S. increased from 8.45 million b/d 8.88 for the week ending February 28, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 9.01 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 248.3 million barrels to 246.8, while gasoline production rose last week, averaging 9.63 million barrels per day, compared to 9.17 million barrels daily the previous week.

The seasonal increases we normally see in pump prices this time of year may continue to be muted for now.

Quick stats

Oregon is one of 33 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a week ago. California (-8 cents) has the largest week-over-week drop in the nation. Michigan (+6 cents) has the largest week-over-week increase.

California ($4.69) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the fifth week in a row. Hawaii ($4.55) is second, and Washington ($4.09) is third. These are the three states in the country with averages at or above $4 a gallon. This week 19 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are 28 states with an average in the $2 range this week.

The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.63) and Kentucky ($2.67). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold. At the time, the COVID-19 pandemic drove significant declines in crude oil and gasoline demand in the U.S. and around the world.

The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $2.07 this week, compared to $2.12 a week ago.

Oregon is one of nine states with higher prices now than a month ago. The national average is six cents less and the Oregon average is four cents more than a month ago. Montana (+11 cents) has the largest month-over-month increase in the country. Delaware (-27 cents) has the largest month-over-month drop in the nation.

Oregon is one of 49 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is 32 cents less and the Oregon average is 20 cents less than a year ago. Ohio (-56 cents) has the largest yearly drop. Colorado (+1 cent) is the only state with a year-over-year increase.

West Coast

The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with all seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.

As mentioned above, California has the most expensive gas in the country for the fifth week in a row. Hawaii, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Alaska, and Arizona round out the top seven. Oregon is fifth for the 23rd week in a row.

Six of the seven states in the West Coast region have week-over-week declines. California (-8 cents) has the largest drop in the region and the country. Nevada (-5 cents), Alaska (-4 cents), Washington (-4 cents), Arizona (-2 cents), and Oregon (-2 cents) also have weekly declines. Hawaii’s average is up ever so slightly week-over-week (+ 2/10ths of a cent).

The refinery utilization rate on the West Coast jumped from 84.5% to 87.3% for the week ending February 28. This rate has ranged between about 74% to 92% in the last year. The latest national refinery utilization rate fell from 86.5% to 85.9%.

The refinery utilization rate measures how much crude oil refineries are processing as a percentage of their maximum capacity. A low or declining rate can put upward pressure on pump prices, while a high or rising rate can put downward pressure on pump prices.

According to EIA’s latest weekly report, total gas stocks in the region dipped from 29.36 million bbl. to 28.78 million bbl. An increase in gasoline stocks can put downward pressure on pump prices, while a decrease in gasoline stocks can put upward pressure on pump prices.

Diesel

For the week, the national average falls three cents to $3.63 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average ticks down a penny to $3.86. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $4.03 and the Oregon average was $4.20.

Source: AAA

Joey Brooks

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